Date: 8th April 2014 at 10:15am
Written by:

With the demise of the BBC’s predictor, I decided I had to try to work out what I thought the possible outcome would be as to who “claims” the last relegation spot (I am writing Torquay off as having gone).

Given yesterday’s results, there will be one or two teams that have now been dragged into the mix and when I looked at the fixtures, there is one team in particular – previously not reckoned to be in any danger who may well be looking at their run in and wishing they had one or two more points in the bag.

I speak of Morecambe, who already have 48 pts, but have the following run-in:

Fleetwood (a)
Scunthorpe (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Wimbledon (a)
Bury (h)

Looking at that little lot, I am struggling to make a case for them winning any of those and can only see them maybe getting a couple of draws. That might be enough: I think that Cheltenham/Newport/Hartlepool and Accrington maybe only need to pick up a few points and they will be ok, but Morecambe’s fixtures look difficult.

Based on my other predictions, I see it being between Wycombe, Northampton, Exeter, Morecambe and us.

I thought Wycombe were dropping like a stone, but then they beat Dagenham yesterday. They have to play Northampton & Bristol Rovers at home and then go to Torquay on the last day. Those games might be enough to save them – but Northampton will be looking to that game as a must win, along with the Easter Monday clash against us.

The variable you can’t account for is that the last day of the season often throws up some odd results: teams already promoted with nothing to play for coast; teams with nothing to play for in mid-table just want to go on holiday and teams who have either already been relegated or avoided relegation will often play with more freedom.

Exeter also have to play Torquay at home, plus Cheltenham, so will have to get their points from those games.

Northampton must be gutted that the team around them won yesterday, but a win at Accrington is still a good result. Burton at home for them next week which will be tough, but they have to get something out of that, because it’s followed by key games at Wycombe and then home to Pompey.

As for us, I see Bristol Rovers as a must-win and Northampton as a “must avoid defeat”.

I think there may yet be some more twists and turns along the way.

Written by The Dawg and originally posted in the VP forum – click here

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